Getting the data

Data was collected from https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.

The code for this analysis is avaiable on github.

Countries with more than 500 cases:

The following shows the onset of the COVID19 pandemic in all countries which reported up to today at least 500 cases, starting from March 01, 2020.

And on log-scale:

It is clearly visible, that in most of the countries the increase in cases is following an exponential growth. Whoever wants to learn more about this, please check out Simon Anders nice post and this video of 3blue1brown.

Prediction for Germany

If we assume an exponential growth, we can use the data available and see what to expect in the next couple of days. I know that the circumstances can change very quickly, which is why I only provide the prediction for the next five days:

Today:

##         date    cases       type
## 1 2020-03-16 7655.544 Prediction

Next three days:

##         date    cases       type
## 1 2020-03-17 10032.63 Prediction
## 2 2020-03-18 13147.82 Prediction
## 3 2020-03-19 17230.28 Prediction

Mortality rate

The following plot shows the mortality rate in all countries with more than 500 cases. I calculate the mortality rate by dividing the number of COVID19 related deaths by the number of reported cases.

A word of caution: Since many reports suggest a high percentage of infected people which are asymptomatic, the number of reported infections are underestimating the number of truely infected. The high mortality rate in Italy might be explained by Italy’s ways of testing for COVID19 and is probably strongly overestimating the mortality rate.